Above-average rainfall fuels optimism
BY LELAND ACKER

While last year's rainfall total had experts forecasting an extended period of 10-15 dry years, the 51.86 inches of rainfall in 2007 gives Cherokee County Extension Agent Jack White a sense of optimism.

"Fifty-one inches is about five inches above the 100-year average of 45 inches," he said. "Right now we have a lot of moisture in the ground."

Mr. White said in the late 1990s, the rainfall averaged in the upper 50s, reaching as high as 60 inches in some cases.

With 10 years of lower rainfall being forecast, 2007's rainfall total comes as a nice surprise.

"Texas A&M tells us that, looking at the longer cycle, we'll continue with dryer conditions," he said. "That does not mean necessarily that we'll have below-average rainfall every year. We'll have a lot at one time and be short at other times."

Mr. White said the rainfall has put East Texas agricultural producers in a good position.

"The Keech-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is around 300 (with 0 meaning the soil is saturated and 800 signalling severe drought conditions)," he said. "We're in fairly good shape right now. I'd like to see a lower KBDI, but we're not going into this year carrying a deficit of moisture like we have been in previous years."

Mr. White said agricultural producers should expect to see some dry seasons in 2008, but not to expect any shortages in hay, such as the shortage experienced in 2006.

"Fruit and vegetable producers will need irrigation systems," he said. "Large animal producers will need to get the hay they need for the entire year by the end of June, and we can pretty much do that from year to year."

Mr. White added that hay supplies carried over from 2007 will help with 2008 supplies.

"We have a big surplus of hay this year, so it doesn't have to be a big hay year," he said. "We're not in dire straits."

July was the biggest month for rainfall with 12.97 inches of rainfall measured, which resulted in floods across the East Texas area which washed out several county roads, part of U.S. Highway 84 between Maydelle and Rusk, and forced the temporary closure of the Texas State Railroad when flooding near Bean's Creek washed out 60 feet of track.